Is the Nikon 55-300mm lens overkill for my Nikon D3100?

I'm debating between the 200mm and 300mm telephoto lens for my D3100. I'm an amateur photographer and plan on using this for my daughter's upcoming graduation. Is there other telephoto lenses I should consider?

I'm a Canon girl and not familiar with the Nikon lenses, but I have a feeling that possibly that 55-300mm may not be a really good quality? Don't worry ONLY about the focal length, make sure to research quality, as well.

300mm for a graduation sounds pretty long unless you are sitting way in the back of a big hall, and then you probably won't have enough light for it, anyway.

It is an important one-off event that happens just once - "overkill" doesn't enter into it!

If you are worried about cost then why not rent a lens for the day? That means you can get the top range lens to get the best shot and don't have to worry "will I ever use it again?"